3
Blue Illusion
5yo Gelding · 9-5
Happy Valley · Island Handicap · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA68 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 07/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/02/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 06/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/05/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 08/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |