13
Flowing Riches
5yo Gelding · 8-13
Happy Valley · Island Handicap · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 46% | -0.42 |
| 30/11/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 69% | +0.32 |
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 36% | -0.32 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 31% | -0.17 |
| 01/07/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |