5
Georgian Sigma
4yo Gelding · 9-2
Happy Valley · Island Handicap · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 77% | -0.20 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 45% | -0.40 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |