11
Happy United
7yo Gelding · 8-8
Happy Valley · Island Handicap · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 20/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |