9
Harmony Fire
9yo Gelding · 8-11
Happy Valley · Island Handicap · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 10/12/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |