12
Mapogo
4yo Gelding · 8-6
Happy Valley · Island Handicap · 5f
#11
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 62% | -0.07 |
| 06/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 45% | -0.33 |
| 10/06/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 9% | -0.49 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |