7
California Blitz
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-23 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 23/12/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 25/02/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |