12
Daryl Flash
5yo Gelding · 8-8
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#14
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA68 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/01/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/02/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 19/02/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 15/07/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |