1
Flying Wrote
6yo Gelding · 9-8
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength97%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |