13
Jubilant Winner
6yo Gelding · 9-7
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA76 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA68 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 31% | -0.06 |
| 25/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 08/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |