5
Pass Line
4yo Gelding · 9-3
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 10.5)
Highest class: BHA74
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 15/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |