11
Prestige Always
5yo Gelding · 8-9
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 91% | +0.36 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 25/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 22% | -0.20 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 31/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 31% | -0.27 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |