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14

Target Audience

5yo Gelding · 9-6

Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

46%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Sha Tin 06/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 64 · 6f Gd 121 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 64 par6/0464OR 64BHA64 @ Sha Tin 20/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 64 · 7f Gd 123 · below its mark20/04/2025 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Sha Tin 22/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 62 · 7f Gd 120 · below its mark22/06/2025 · OR 62 par22/0662OR 62BHA60 @ Sha Tin 13/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 60 parBHA57 @ Sha Tin 19/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 57 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 57 par19/0457OR 57C0 @ Sha Tin 06/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Slo 115BHA63 @ Sha Tin 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 63 · 7f Gd 119 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 63 par31/0563OR 633 @ Happy Valley 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 123C0 @ Happy Valley 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1288/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Happy Valley?2nd2nd0
2026-06-10Happy Valley31st1st0
2026-05-31Sha TinBHA635th5th0
2026-05-06Sha Tin?5th5th0
2026-04-19Sha TinBHA571st1st0
2025-07-13Sha TinBHA605th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0413/0731/058/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -6.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20256th28/10%58%+0.58
20/04/20256th40/10%58%+0.58
22/06/20258th50/10%46%+0.46
13/07/20255th20/10%69%+0.69
19/04/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
06/05/20265th11/271%64%-0.07
31/05/20265th20/10%69%+0.69
10/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
08/07/20262nd7/282%91%+0.09