4
Young Emperor
5yo Gelding · 9-5
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 08/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |