8
Danica's Choice
5yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 18/01/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/02/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 29/03/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |