9
King Lotus
5yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 07/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 18/01/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 08/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 15/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |