11
Leading Agility
4yo Gelding · 8-9
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
74%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |
| 18/01/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.19 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |