10
Meowth
6yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.33 |
| 28/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |