12
Outgate
7yo Gelding · 8-8
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA66 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 77% | +0.03 |
| 11/02/2026 | 12th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 12/04/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 01/07/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |