3
Sky Cap
5yo Gelding · 9-3
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 08/02/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 27/05/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 18% | -0.53 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |