4
Star Rise
5yo Gelding · 9-3
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#14
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA70
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -15.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |
| 14/12/2025 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 31% | -0.55 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 24/05/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 15% | -0.58 |