6
Thriving Brothers
5yo Gelding · 9-0
Happy Valley · Mount Butler Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA61 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 46% | +0.20 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 25/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 27/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |