9
China Win
5yo Gelding · 8-13
Happy Valley · Tai Hang Handicap · 1m 1f
#6
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 91% | -0.05 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |