6
Fortunate Son
6yo Gelding · 9-0
Happy Valley · Tai Hang Handicap · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 04/03/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 18/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 08/07/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 18% | -0.45 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |