11
Keefy
8yo Gelding · 8-7
Happy Valley · Tai Hang Handicap · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 13/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |