4
Lo Rider
5yo Gelding · 9-6
Happy Valley · Tai Hang Handicap · 1m 1f
#10
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA80 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA82 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sha Tin | BHA86 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength46%
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/10/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 22% | -0.60 |
| 30/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.14 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 24/05/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |