2
Seraph Gabriel
4yo Gelding · 9-9
Happy Valley · Tai Hang Handicap · 1m 1f
#13
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA82 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA82 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA76 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA76 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2024 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 93% | +0.07 |
| 04/01/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 23% | -0.35 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 19/02/2026 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 15% | -0.64 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 54% | -0.12 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 77% | +0.03 |