10
Windlord
4yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Tai Hang Handicap · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA74 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA76 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA76 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 01/03/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 22/03/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 26/04/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 31% | -0.22 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 54% | -0.12 |
| 31/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 27/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |