3
Without Compare
5yo Gelding · 9-9
Happy Valley · Tai Hang Handicap · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA73 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA65 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 77% | +0.11 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 77% | -0.10 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |