Bergen
5yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 94
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 08/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |