Commander Storm
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 01/10/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |