7
Dreaming Smart
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 86
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 11/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |