Healing Waters
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |