5
Littleransomsfire
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 09/10/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 28/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |