1
Molly's Potion
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 76
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/02/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |