2
Stanka
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -14.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |