5
Catnip Hill
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 50
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |