8
Speightsy Rival
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 71
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |