7
Molly's Town
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 19/12/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 07/04/2026 | 10th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 13/05/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |