3
Mondavila
4yo Gelding · 9-0
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 36% | -0.46 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/04/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |