4
Oil Man
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/06/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 08/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |