6
Willy's In Charge
3yo Colt · 8-7
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |