9
Maximum Spirit
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |