5
Pink Picture
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 56
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 27/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |