1
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4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 15/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |