2
Hot Middles
4yo Filly · 9-0
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |