3
The Kid Pataky
5yo Mare · 8-12
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 78% | -0.17 |
| 25/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 12th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 29/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |