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Pure Concept

3yo Colt · 9-4

Kempton · Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) (Div 2) · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/9

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

100%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Foaled April 9. Lucky Vega colt. Half-brother to winner abroad by Mehmas. Did best of the newcomers when second of 8 in a Kempton novice (1m) 4 weeks ago, sticking to his task like one who'll be suited by further. Sets a clear standard on that effort and ought to take some stopping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kempton 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS26/083
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Kempton32nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/08/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70