Case Study
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 57
Kempton · Racing TV Fillies' Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Yarmouth | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 19/06/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |