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Freda

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 70

Kempton · Racing TV Fillies' Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at the fourth attempt in novice over this C&D in April. Just a solid start to her handicap career but a 2 lb ease in the weights means she's eligible for this lesser band of handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 07/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS7/0134 @ Lingfield 10/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 7f1y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS10/0244 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 135 · HIGHER CLASS25/0344 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 72 par6/044OR 725 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 72 par20/055OR 725 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 72 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 72 par9/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton54th4th0
2026-05-20Kempton55th5th0
2026-04-06Kempton41st0th+1
2026-03-25Kempton46th5th+1
2026-02-10Lingfield43rd2nd+1
2026-01-07Lingfield32nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0110/0225/036/0420/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/01/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86
10/02/20263rd5/287%0%-0.87
25/03/20266th13/266%50%-0.16
06/04/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
20/05/20265th9/153%64%+0.11
09/09/20264th22/10%75%+0.75